A New York History of Covid-19, Written at the Half-Way Point
You have to write these things down while you still remember them. I was already beginning to forget that there was a toilet paper shortage. Similarly right now the popular thing is to point out that this was predictable and we should have listened to the experts. But the experts were predicting that this would be much less bad:
The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29
To be fair, they thought that the curve would behave similar as in other countries. They didn’t expect the US government to mess up its response this badly.
Another thing that people are already forgetting is what “flatten the curve” meant. It was supposed to be a strategy to avoid the quarantine lockdown that we all now live in. Western countries didn’t want to do what China did, and “flattening the curve” was the appealing alternative. A lot of these things can only be understood in context, because things are changing so incredibly quickly that it feels like we’re living in a whole new world every couple weeks, and we forget. So lets start at the beginning while we still remember: