Probably Dance

I can program and like games

Tag: Covid-19

Concepts for the Current US Mess

An unforeseen disaster is never the consequence of a single factor, but rather is like a whirlwind, a point of cyclonic depression in the consciousness of the world, towards which a whole multiplicity of converging causalities have conspired

– Carlo Emilio Gadda (in That Awful Mess on the Via Merulana)

It’s hard for me to write a focused blog post at the moment because there just seem to be too many active problems. I could have written a focused blog post about a programming topic, but that feels tone-deaf. So instead this will be a scatter-shot blog post about ways of thinking that could help us out of this mess. Also, since I usually write about programming, I will try to feed the lessons back to programming.

For context (if you’re reading this in the future or from another country) the US has had a really bad year. We nearly started a war with Iran, we impeached our president but couldn’t get him out of office, and then we completely failed our response to the global pandemic. After initially doing nothing and hoping it would just go away, the US decided to react in the most costly way possible, causing mass unemployment while still proving mostly impotent in fighting the virus. Now, after that huge sunk cost, we have mostly given up on fighting the coronavirus, just in time for a new problem to arise: Massive amounts of protests all over the country, some of which even turned into riots. The immediate cause is that the police killed another unarmed black man because he was briefly resisting them. But of course it’s pent-up anger from years of police brutality. And of course it couldn’t have come at a worse time with mass-unemployment and a pandemic still raging through the country.

All of this didn’t have to be, so here are some helpful tools of thought:

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The Covid-Shutdowns are Actually a Great Civics Lesson

Currently much of the country is shut down to stop the spread of the coronavirus and there is very active debate about how soon we should open up again. Some people say as soon as possible, others are saying immediately. Those might sound like similar viewpoints, but “as soon as possible” might be anything from two weeks to two months, depending on who you ask. There’s also a lot of debate about how deadly a second wave would actually be if we opened up the country with few or no restrictions. What percentage would get the virus? How many of those would die?

Uncertainty about all of those numbers is slowly decreasing and it seems like the reopening will happen sooner rather than later.

But I want to frame the debate about how it’s actually a great civics lesson. It shows how the government is really of the people, by the people and for the people, and how it can only do things that the people allow it to do. It also neatly shows how we need the government to do things that everyone wants to happen, but that they can’t make happen on their own.

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A New York History of Covid-19, Written at the Half-Way Point

You have to write these things down while you still remember them. I was already beginning to forget that there was a toilet paper shortage. Similarly right now the popular thing is to point out that this was predictable and we should have listened to the experts. But the experts were predicting that this would be much less bad:

The consensus forecast generated by the individual responses indicates that we should expect roughly 19,000 reported cases by March 29

To be fair, they thought that the curve would behave similar as in other countries. They didn’t expect the US government to mess up its response this badly.

Another thing that people are already forgetting is what “flatten the curve” meant. It was supposed to be a strategy to avoid the quarantine lockdown that we all now live in. Western countries didn’t want to do what China did, and “flattening the curve” was the appealing alternative. A lot of these things can only be understood in context, because things are changing so incredibly quickly that it feels like we’re living in a whole new world every couple weeks, and we forget. So lets start at the beginning while we still remember:

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